Взоры Астаны прикованы к Азербайджану

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Из-за тревожной ситуации вокруг Каспийского трубопроводного консорциума, занимающегося экспортом казахстанских углеводородов через территорию РФ, уже со следующего года часть этой нефти потечет через Азербайджан.

Стороны обговорили транспортировку незначительных объемов, но планируют постепенно наращивать их. Пока речь идет о поставках 1,5 млн т, а после – 5-6,5 млн т нефти через морской порт Актау в порт Баку и оттуда по трубопроводу Баку-Тбилиси-Джейхан. Рассматриваются и маршруты Баку-Супса и Баку-Батуми, где имеется казахстанский терминал в порту.

Но это, конечно же, капля в море – по КТК прокачивают 53-54 млн т нефти из 68 млн, экспортируемых республикой. Трубопровод берет свое начало на нефтеносном западе Казахстана, проходит по территории России с конечным пунктом в Новороссийске, где нефть загружается в танкеры для отправки на рынки. Среди крупнейших акционеров компании – РФ, Казахстан, Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium, а назвать отгружаемую нефть казахстанской можно с большой натяжкой. Нефтяной рынок республики по большей части принадлежит американским и европейским компаниям.

Так что на пике противостояния России с Европой и США ситуация вокруг международного проекта сложилась нервозная. Отгрузки нефти на трубопроводном консорциуме останавливались четыре раза за год по различным причинам – вплоть до обезвреживания неразорвавшихся торпед и мин времен Великой Отечественной. Что это – суровая необходимость или очередные политические интриги, – тема отдельного разговора, но взоры Астаны сегодня прикованы к альтернативному пути через нашу страну. Альтернативы для Астаны.

Сможет ли путь из Актау в Баку стать реальной заменой экспорту через Россию, рассказал в беседе с нами нефтегазовый аналитик, автор телеграм-канала Energy Analytics Абзал Нарымбетов (Казахстан):

– В этом году магистральный трубопровод полностью и частично закрывали четырежды, но это не сильно скажется на годовых показателях нашего нефтяного экспорта. Хотя добыча и будет ниже прогнозов. В первой половине года она уже сократилась на 1 млн 800 тыс. тонн, и снижение продолжится из-за остановки двух выносных причалов для отгрузки нефти под Новороссийском. Из трех приемных устройств два были на ремонте, работало только одно. Поэтому просто не могли использовать КТК на полную мощность.

Кроме того, произошла авария на газосепарационной установке в Кашагане. Сейчас ее ремонт завершился, последствия ликвидировали, а суточная добыча нефти и газового конденсата в Казахстане приходит в норму. Но все это вкупе приведет к годовому спаду.

Что же касается диверсификации путей экспорта из-за остановок на Каспийском трубопроводном консорциуме, не вижу каких-то реальных стратегических шагов, которые были бы для этого сделаны. 

Показатель намерений

– Однако странные неудачи консорциума не исключают политическую подоплеку и могут повториться…

– Прямых доказательств того, что северный сосед стремится таким образом повлиять на политику Казахстана, нет, но четырежды в год основной трубопровод еще никогда не закрывали. Такое могло произойти максимум раз в год из-за ремонта и прочих причин. Зависимость нефтяного экспорта от России должна была подтолкнуть наше правительство к диверсификации транзита задолго до сегодняшних инцидентов. Но обещания экспортировать 1,5 млн тонн через Азербайджан в следующем году и увеличить поставки в перспективе до 6-6,5 млн – этого очень мало по меркам нашего экспорта по КТК, а это 60 млн т нефти. Так что планируемые в азербайджанском направлении отгрузки в 40 раз меньше. Поэтому львиную долю нефти продолжат транспортировать по КТК, ведь это самый короткий и дешевый маршрут. Вариант с азербайджанской инфраструктурой Баку-Тбилиси-Джейхан на фоне текущих событий – это больше показатель намерений. Ведь чтобы существенно диверсифицировать маршрут, нужно охватить этим планом хотя бы четвертую часть транзита казахстанской нефти. Но таких шагов пока не видно. Скорее всего, азербайджанское направление еще только рассматривается, делаются попытки и устанавливаются связи. Поскольку не следует класть все яйца в одну корзину, у нашей страны должно быть несколько альтернативных транзитных путей. 

Хранить можно, но дорого

– Намерение построить крупное нефтехранилище на Каспии из-за проблем на главной экспортной артерии – правильный ход?

– Не думаю, что этот вопрос актуален сейчас для Казахстана, потому что наш совокупный годовой спрос на нефтепродукты не превышает 150 млн баррелей. Конечно, хранилища можно строить как запасной вариант на случай невозможности транспортировки, но это дорого. Сомневаюсь, что такой проект окупится. Более вероятный выход – сокращать производство нефти. Ведь при частичной остановке основного маршрута за последние три-четыре месяца добыча на Кашагане и Тенгизе была неполной. И если такое повторится, скорее всего, будут меньше добывать.

– Но вернемся к поставкам по БТД. Доставлять нефть танкерами сложно и дорого. Можно ли значительно нарастить экспорт, проложив нефтепровод по дну Каспия?  

– Нефтеналивные танкеры отличаются вместимостью и габаритами. На Каспии они перевозят в десять раз меньше тех, что курсируют в Новороссийске. А значит, придется арендовать суда под нужные объемы, иначе поставки будут небольшими. Здесь нужно учитывать и возможности Каспийского моря. Конечно, оптимальный вариант – строительство нефтепровода, но такой проект уходит в плоскость геополитики и статуса Каспийского моря. Москва и Тегеран вряд ли на это подпишутся. Россия не захочет пустить казахстанскую нефть в обход своей территории и будет возражать.

Идея прокладки транскаспийского трубопровода от Актау до Баку не нова. Это был бы кратчайший путь, к тому же сейчас магистральный нефтепровод БТД заполнен наполовину. По моим расчетам, этот проект еще не окупил себя – для этого трубу нужно заполнить. А потому возникает вопрос: почему бы акционерам не выступить с предложением, которое выгодно всем партнерам и заинтересованным сторонам? Сейчас тарифы для транспортировки по БТД выше, чем у КТК. А ведь есть и другие расходы. Сначала нефть нужно везти по железной дороге до порта Актау, перелить в резервуар, а оттуда через причал в танкер, довезти до Баку. Думаю, если уменьшить тариф, экспорт казахстанской нефти через Азербайджан был бы больше. 

Наливному флоту нужны инвестиции

– Можно ли без проблем увеличить транспортировку через Баку до 5 млн тонн и более?

– Думаю, да, поскольку есть наработки. Раньше нефть из Казахстана доставлялась в Азербайджан танкерами по Каспийскому морю для дальнейшей прокачки по трубопроводу. До 2008 года стороны даже планировали увеличить транзит до 5 млн тонн и более, но этому помешали события в Грузии, и отгрузки решили уменьшить, танкеры распродали. В итоге осталось три судна, принадлежащие нацкомпании, которые перевозят к нефтепроводу 1,5-2 млн тонн, не больше.

Сложно узнать, сколько танкеров у азербайджанской стороны, поэтому нужно раскрыть совокупные возможности и договариваться. Технически это вполне осуществимо, но следует учитывать еще и технические возможности Актауского морского порта – они не превышают 5 млн тонн. И если туда инвестировать, прикупить или арендовать танкеры, то можно вывести экспорт казахстанской нефти через Баку до запланированных объемов, а при более существенных вложениях – до 12 млн тонн. 

Есть ли другие пути?

– Сейчас Астана рассматривает два основных направления экспорта в обход России: на восток (Китай) и через Каспий. Так ли важны альтернативные пути транзита нефти?

– На китайском направлении ситуация такова: половина из 20 млн тонн возможностей магистрального нефтепровода заполнена российской нефтью, а Казахстан использовал за последние три года только десятую часть своего потенциала, потому что спрос в западной части Китая низкий, а прокладывать трубу на восток этой страны – дорого.

Альтернативу нужно иметь всегда, чтобы не упустить свой потенциал и возможности, особенно когда появляются такие проблемы, какие были у нас в этом году. Часть нефти всегда нужно отправлять на альтернативные маршруты, даже если это менее выгодно. Потому что риск-менеджмент – первостепенное условие национального суверенитета. А поскольку половина бюджета Казахстана формируется от экспорта нефти и в нашем случае, нельзя всецело зависеть от одного транзитного пути. 

Источник: газета «Каспий»

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